Posted by: jhamon | July 18, 2009

SoCal Unemployment Goes Vertical – Real Estate Bottom Near?!?

Despite the fact that regional SoCal unemployment rate has gone vertical, local radio ads pimping mortgages and the chatter of people on the streets would have you believe it’s official: the real estate bottom is in.  

Not a chance. 

Consider this from Rich Toscano, one of my favorite data nerds:

The local [San Diego]unemployment rate hit 10.1 percent last month, according to the latest estimates from California’s Employment Development Department. The below graph shows that June’s unemployment rate was notably worse than anything seen in the prior two recessions — not that anyone was suggesting otherwise.

SoCal Unemployment Goes Vertical

SoCal Unemployment Goes Vertical

So here it comes:

Common Sense Exam #3:

With regional unemployment at a 10% rate (in a near vertical climb – broader measures closer to 20%), residential real estate prices are likely to:

  1. Bounce from here,
  2. Collapse from here, or
  3. I have no clue because I have no common sense.



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  1. […] sympathy for those who still have jobs asserting their “rights.”  For the record, real unemployment appears to be over 16% in California and unemployment benefits are exhausted for increasing numbers. This will be very interesting, as […]

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